Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
